Background:
Engineers Canada initiated a system for tracking engineering labour markets as part of the Engineering and Technology Labour Market Study in 2008. The tracking system has been updated in 2010 based on new economic, industry and demographic projections and input from Provincial Labour Market Information Committees.1
The analysis covers twenty six separate engineering labour markets and provides an assessment of conditions that will assist industry stakeholders including:
· Employers and recruiters
· Students, immigrants and other potential entrants
· Faculty and managers of post secondary programs
· Federal and provincial government officials managing immigration and other labour market programs
· Provincial engineering associations
The Engineers Canada system tracks trends in labour supply and demand across recent history and adds a new projection from 2010 to 2018. These trends cover a period of growing supply early in the last decade as a surge of immigration arrived. Since 2001 immigration has declined rapidly while graduations from engineering programs have increased slowly. Over this period supply has slowly moved down to line up with demand. This balance was interrupted by the recession in 2009 as job cuts weakened markets.
Most markets trend back to balance across the scenario from 2010 to 2018. Key exceptions emerge for occupations where labour requirements are driven by older age profiles and high levels of retirement or where a strong economic cycle increases or decreases employment. This report describes the components of supply and demand and prospects for recruiting and job search.
The system is based on historical data and future scenarios for:
· Output, investment and employment for engineering-intensive provincial industries
· Employment in engineering occupations
· Graduates from Canadian Engineering Accreditation Board (CEAB) programs
· Immigration (permanent and temporary foreign workers) by engineering occupations
· Retirement and mortality in engineers
The provincial measures are combined into employment drivers that reflect the distribution of engineers across industries. Each driver is based on provincial economic conditions across a scenario from 2010 to 2018. These drivers are provided from economic forecasts prepared by the Centre for Spatial Economics.2
The annual change in employment is added to retirements and mortality (replacement demands) to estimate changing labour requirements. These estimates are compared to increases in labour supply through graduates from post secondary programs and immigration. Excess supply is defined as the difference between supply and labour requirements.
These measures are combined into a summary ranking on a scale from 1 to 5 with 1 representing a very weak market and 5 a tight market. (see Rankings)
Rankings summarize the findings for National markets and for British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
The System:
The system assesses labour markets based on historical data and future scenarios for several measures, including:
· Output, investment and employment for engineering-intensive provincial industries:
· Manufacturing
· Construction
· Professional, Scientific and Managerial Services
· Utilities
· Government
· Primary Industries
· Other industries
· Employment in engineering occupations
· Graduates from CEAB programs
· Immigration (permanent and temporary foreign workers) by engineering occupations
· Retirement and mortality in engineering occupations
The provincial measures are combined into employment drivers that reflect the distribution of engineers across industries. Each driver is based on provincial economic conditions across a scenario from 2010 to 2018. These drivers are provided from economic forecasts prepared by the Centre for Spatial Economics.
The annual change in employment is added to retirements and mortality (replacement demands) to estimated changing labour requirements. These estimates are compared to increases in labour supply through graduates from post secondary programs and immigration. Exhibit #2 summarizes the estimate of Excess Supply, a key labour market measure.
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