Engineering Labour Market Tracking System Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

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Ontario Overview (click below for other jurisdictions)

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The Economy   A brief summary of expected economic conditions is presented here and a complete write-up of the Center for Spatial Economics January, 2010 Provincial forecast is attached in Appendix A.   Ontario is the weakest link in Canada’s recession chain, with a large drop of over 3.5% in overall output in 2009.  Indeed GDP began to decline in 2008 and recovery is expected to begin in 2010.  Weakness in the housing sector and declining exports led the downturn.  The recovery path retraces these steps with both housing and exports rising ahead of the rest of the economy.  But, in both sectors, the recovery is slow and 2007 peak levels are not regained until 2012.    Labour market impacts are severe with employment falling 2.5% in 2009.  Unemployment rose from 6.5% in 2008 to 9% in 2009, the highest level since the last recession, and rises again in 2010.  Employment in manufacturing has been falling since 2005 and while it recovers strongly from 2010 to 2012, it does not regain past peak levels during the scenario.
A modest expansion is anticipated from 2013 to 2018 as trend rates of growth hover around 2%.  General economic growth is lower than in the past due to slower population growth and the related limits to the labour force. Labour markets will reflect these demographic trends through very low unemployment rates and ongoing recruiting challenges. Higher immigration is the key to economic growth and net immigration rises to record levels across the coming decade.   Manufacturing output and employment losses began in 2005.  The 2009 recession marks the bottom of a long slump as shipments and employment begin to improve in 2010.  Recovery is strong but the 2001 peak levels for output is not reached until 2015 and employment does not regain the 2005 peak during the scenario.  This recovery for manufacturing is driven by new technologies and related investments in new processes early in the recovery.  These improvements add big gains in productivity.  The recovery in manufacturing from 2010 to 2018, while modest by historical standards, adds enough jobs and activity to raise employment and output growth in Ontario to among the strongest in Canada over this period.   The government sector and construction play an important counter cyclical role in the projection.  Infrastructure projects and continuing government investment boost non-residential construction from 2009 to 2011 and this helps to limit the recession.   Government deficits grow in 2009 and 2010 and the spending restraint required later to balance the budget slows down the overall economic expansion.  Non-residential construction activity continues to be strong across most of the scenario.
Labour Force The Statistics Canada Census counted 85,000 engineers working in Ontario 2006 and current estimates for 2009 reach 87,000.  Click on the individual labour markets below for details.
Exhibit F - Ontario Labour Market 2006c 2009e   (Census) (Estimated Trend) Civil engineers 16447 17620 Mechanical engineers 19145 21070 Electrical and electronics 15053 14830 Industrial and Manufacturing 10248 9899 All Other 24454 23839  Total Engineers 85347 87258 Source: Statistics Canada, Prism Economics and Analysis
Key Points: · Weakness in manufacturing reduced employment in industrial and electrical engineering from 2006 to 2009. · Strength in non-residential construction and utilities added to employment.
Ontario Market Rankings Summary Exhibit #ES6 reports the results for all engineers as a group in Ontario.  Statistical reliability and independent estimates allow tracking for five individual markets.
Exhibit ES6– All Engineers, Ontario Labour Market Rankings 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Civil engineers 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 Mechanical engineers 3 3 4 4 4 3 4 4 4 4 Electrical and electronics 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 4 4 4 Industrial and Manufacturing 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 All Other 2 3 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 3  Total Engineers 2 3 3 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 Key Points: · Engineering labour markets were returning to more balanced conditions from 2006 to 2008, recovering from an influx of immigrants that peaked in 2001. · Recession in 2008 and 2009 weakened most markets. · The recovery is generally modest and labour requirements are not growing rapidly by historical standards but: · Manufacturing grows out of a deep slump with a period of strong investment. · This change will require engineers in related fields. · At the end of the scenario, from 2014 to 2018, growth is limited. However, at current levels of immigration and graduations, markets remain tight because of replacement demands related to increasing rates of retirements.  Recruiting will be especially difficult for experienced engineers.