Engineering Labour Market Tracking System Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

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The Economy   This section introduces provincial results for the overall engineering labour market from 2009 to 2018.  Labour market conditions for engineering occupations will depend on key economic background factors.  A brief summary of expected conditions is presented here and a complete write-up of the Center for Spatial Economics January, 2010 Provincial forecast is attached in Appendix A.   Manitoba experienced a moderate decline in output of 0.9 % in 2009, due primarily to a decline in exports and manufacturing sector activity. In 2010, the manufacturing sector begins to recover and a strong rebound in construction investment spurs growth to 2.6%. In the long-term, growth falls to 2% then settle at just below 2% percent for the remainder of the forecast period.
Over the medium-term the utility sector is a key driver of growth with a large number of electric power projects planned by Manitoba Hydro. The manufacturing sector is expected to grow steadily as demand for exports recovers, but will take a few years to recoup the large losses suffered in 2009. Investment related to health and social services will rise with an aging population.   The aging of the population will also slow the growth of the labour force, requiring increased levels of net immigration to prevent serious labour shortages over the forecast period.
Labour Force   Statistics Canada data for engineering employment is not reliable for individual occupations and the labour market assessment is limited to all engineers.  The 2006 Census reports 4080 engineers in Manitoba and the Labour Force Survey indicates that employment has fallen slightly in 2009.
Exhibit E – Manitoba Labour Market 2006c 2009e   (Census) (Estimated Trend)  Total Engineers 4080 3998 Source: Statistics Canada, Prism Economics and Analysis   Key Points: · The Labour Force Survey estimates that engineering employment peaked in 2007 before falling sharply over 2008 and 2009. Estimates of ‘trend employment’ dampen the magnitude of the decline. · LFS estimates a 20 % decline in employment between 2007 and 2009.