Engineering Labour Market Tracking System Labour Market Conditions 2009 - 2018

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Quebec Overview (click below for other jurisdictions)

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The Economy   A brief summary of expected economic conditions is presented here and a complete write-up of the Center for Spatial Economics January, 2010 Provincial forecast is attached in Appendix A.   The Quebec economy has avoided the worst impacts of the recession with GDP declining just 1.5%, less than for Canada as a whole, in 2009.  Recovery will also be moderate, with gains of 2.7% in 2010.  Declining exports and weak housing led the decline and improvements in export will lead the recovery.  Medium and long term prospects for growth in Quebec are modest, largely due to limited population growth.   Cyclical changes in employment have been limited and unemployment remains well below historical peaks across the recession.  This is partly related to economic strength but also reflects the slowing growth in the labour force.
Unemployment will remain far below past levels due to demographics and this implies long term recruiting challenges.  Increasing immigration will be an important response to labour requirements.   Manufacturing and primary industries, like mining, stand out as leaders in both the recovery to 2013 and the later trend growth in the economy.  Improvements are partly due to projected strong investment in new technologies and processes.  These gains are also related to major utility projects that expand electrical generation and distribution capacity.  In primary industries and manufacturing these gains are making up lost ground as these industries declined over the past decade.  Relatively strong output and employment growth bring these sectors back to previous peaks between 2013 and 2015.   The government and non-residential construction sectors follow a counter cyclical path.  Infrastructure projects, financed by government, help to limit the impact of recession and non-residential construction projects (including some industrial and utility expansion) provide jobs in 2009 and 2010.  As the recovery gains momentum after 2011, government spending is cut back to reduce the accumulated deficits.   This post-recession slowdown holds back construction from 2011 to 2013, but non-residential projects – especially in utilities – provide work late in the scenario.
Labour Force   The Statistics Canada Census counted 40,600 engineers working in Quebec 2006 and current estimates for 2009 reach near 44,000.   Exhibit G – Quebec Labour Market 2006c 2009e   (Census) (Estimated Trend) Civil 9210 12010 Mechanical 6320 5990 Electrical and Electronics 8160 9475 All Other  Engineers 16775 16457 Total Engineers 40465 43932 Source: Statistics Canada, Prism Economics and Analysis   Key Points: · Labour Force survey estimates for these occupations are variable from year to year and may contain measurement errors.
Quebec Market Rankings Summary   Exhibit #EG6 reports the results for all engineers as a group in Ontario.  Statistical reliability and independent estimates allow tracking for five individual markets.   Exhibit G6– Total Engineers, Quebec Labour Market Rankings 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Civil 3 3 3 3 4 3 4 4 4 4 Mechanical 1 3 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 Electrical and Electronics 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 All Other  Engineers 2 3 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 Total Engineers 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 Key Points: · Tighter markets for civil engineers are related to the older age profile and higher retirement demands for this occupation. · Increasing graduations in 2011 and 2012 combine with stable levels of immigration so that the annual gains in the workforce are either ahead of or balancing labour requirements for entry level engineers across the scenario. · Labour market conditions will be tighter for experienced engineers as retirements rise.