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The Economy
A brief summary of expected conditions is presented here and a complete write-up of the Center for Spatial Economics January, 2010 Provincial forecast is attached in Appendix A.
Alberta, like British Columbia, experienced a deep recession in 2009 but rebounds to above average growth during the recovery. Recovery is led by government investment in infrastructure and improving residential activity. Long term growth is supported by resource development.
Alberta will require continuing immigration to fill jobs and fuel economic expansion. New immigrants, in turn, bring younger workforce entrants and help to fill vacancies due to the longer term impact of rising retirements.
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Improvements to resource investment and output are slow as some oil and gas projects start-up in 2010 and 2011 but conventional resource production is declining. By 2012 oils sands development has reached new record high levels and sustains this activity until 2018. These gains in long term non-residential development help to balance declining government investment later in the scenario.
Key, engineering intensive, industries recover as the recession ends. Manufacturing growth exceeds all other sectors, but these gains are only sufficient to regain lost ground so that output and employment remain below past peaks until 2012. Primary industries including agriculture and oil and gas production, lead the recovery but only to regain lost ground until 2012. In the same fashion, the professional, scientific and management services (including engineering consulting services) sector, rebounds from a deep recession to only regain lost ground by 2012.
Statistics Canada data for engineering occupations in Alberta is reported in Exhibit C. The 2006 Census estimates totalled 34,360 with statistically reliable data available for three occupations. Engineers Canada’s Labour Market system estimates that the market had grown to 35,273 by 2009 and this estimate is in line with analysis provided by the Alberta Occupational Demand System.
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Labour Force
The Statistics Canada Census counted 34,360 engineers working in Alberta in 2006; current estimates for 2009 are 35,273. Click on the individual labour markets below for details.
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Exhibit C – Alberta
Source: Statistics Canada, Prism Economics and Analysis
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Key Points:
· The Census identified 34,360 engineers in Alberta and employment has expanded in all occupations except civil.
· These estimates are drawn from small markets and are vulnerable to statistical error.
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Alberta Market Rankings Summary
Exhibit #C6 reports the results for all engineers as a group in Alberta. Statistical reliability and independent estimates allow tracking for five individual markets
Exhibit C6– Total Engineers, Alberta
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Labour Market Rankings
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2009
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2010
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2011
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2012
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2013
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2014
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2015
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2016
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2017
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2018
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Civil engineers
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2
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3
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3
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3
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4
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4
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4
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4
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4
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4
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Mechanical, Electrical, Chemical
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2
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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Petroleum
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2
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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4
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4
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3
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All Other
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2
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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Total, All Engineers
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2
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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3
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Key Points:
· Tight markets for civil engineers reflect the older age profile and replacement demand.
· Balanced markets with rankings of 3 are consistent with short term recruiting challenges for specialized skills and experience.
· In markets with older age profiles and significant expected retirements, rankings may not adequately reflect challenges recruiting engineers with over five years of experience;
· Labour requirements are dominated by retirements while additions to the workforce come from new graduates and temporary foreign workers; creating a potential mismatch of skills and experience.
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